2026 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2026, 5:00 AM · Glass Bowl
Massachusetts @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLikely
Massachusetts
19.7
Toledo
32.8
Toledo win probability: 80%
Margin (Toledo − Massachusetts): 13.1 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 31 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:37 PM | 28.1 | 51.0 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:27 PM | 28.1 | 51.0 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:29 PM | 28.1 | 51.0 | 97% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:22 AM | 28.1 | 51.1 | 97% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:14 PM | 28.2 | 51.0 | 97% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:06 PM | 28.2 | 51.0 | 96% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:39 PM | 20.5 | 51.4 | 90% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:01 PM | 20.2 | 51.2 | 90% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:33 PM | 20.2 | 51.3 | 90% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:07 PM | 20.5 | 51.3 | 91% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:19 PM | 20.4 | 51.3 | 91% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:22 PM | 14.3 | 53.7 | 82% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:46 PM | 16.6 | 54.8 | 85% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:57 PM | 12.4 | 53.9 | 78% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:03 PM | 13.1 | 52.4 | 80% |