2026 Week 11 · Nov 11, 2026, 5:00 AM · Glass Bowl
Massachusetts @ Toledo
Predicted scoreConfident
Massachusetts
11.4
Toledo
39.6
Toledo win probability: 97%
Margin (Toledo − Massachusetts): 28.1 (80% range 7 to 49)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.95% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.91% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.87% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.86% |
| 0 | 38 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:37 PM | 28.1 | 51.0 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:27 PM | 28.1 | 51.0 | 97% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:29 PM | 28.1 | 51.0 | 97% |