2026 Week 11 · Nov 10, 2026, 5:00 AM · InfoCision Stadium
Western Michigan @ Akron
Predicted scoreLikely
Western Michigan
31.4
Akron
19.6
Akron win probability: 23%
Margin (Akron − Western Michigan): -11.8 (80% range -32 to 8)
Total: 51.0 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:25 PM | -8.2 | 48.0 | 30% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:27 PM | -8.2 | 48.0 | 30% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:26 PM | -8.2 | 48.0 | 30% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:24 AM | -8.3 | 48.0 | 30% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:12 PM | -8.3 | 48.0 | 30% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:05 PM | -8.4 | 47.5 | 29% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:38 PM | -8.2 | 50.3 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:00 PM | -8.8 | 48.9 | 28% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:34 PM | -8.8 | 48.9 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:09 PM | -8.6 | 48.9 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:18 PM | -8.6 | 48.9 | 29% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:21 PM | -9.6 | 49.1 | 26% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:45 PM | -8.8 | 51.4 | 29% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:55 PM | -9.9 | 52.1 | 26% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:02 PM | -11.8 | 51.0 | 23% |