2026 Week 11 · Nov 10, 2026, 5:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Kent State @ Bowling Green
Predicted scoreLean
Kent State
20.6
Bowling Green
25.1
Bowling Green win probability: 61%
Margin (Bowling Green − Kent State): 4.5 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 45.8 (80% range 24 to 69)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.77% |
| 10 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:26 PM | 7.3 | 50.1 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:26 PM | 7.2 | 50.2 | 68% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:27 PM | 7.3 | 50.1 | 68% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:50:24 AM | 7.3 | 50.2 | 68% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:05:13 PM | 7.3 | 50.2 | 68% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:04:04 PM | 7.5 | 49.4 | 68% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:37 PM | 10.3 | 50.7 | 74% |
| 9/13/2026, 3:00:00 PM | 6.2 | 52.2 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:35 PM | 6.2 | 52.2 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:01:08 PM | 6.7 | 52.4 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:17 PM | 6.7 | 52.4 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:20 PM | 6.3 | 46.4 | 66% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:46 PM | 5.0 | 45.8 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:55 PM | 5.5 | 45.9 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:24:02 PM | 4.5 | 45.8 | 61% |