2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State
Predicted scoreLean
Oklahoma State
25.1
Kansas State
31.3
Kansas State win probability: 65%
Margin (Kansas State − Oklahoma State): 6.2 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 56.5 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 28 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:15 PM | 19.1 | 52.1 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:19 PM | 19.1 | 52.2 | 89% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:51 PM | 19.1 | 52.2 | 89% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:08 AM | 19.1 | 52.2 | 89% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:50 PM | 19.1 | 52.2 | 89% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:11 PM | 18.3 | 51.8 | 88% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:21 PM | 19.4 | 52.0 | 89% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:45 PM | 15.9 | 51.0 | 85% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:12 PM | 16.0 | 51.0 | 85% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:41 PM | 17.3 | 50.9 | 87% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:54 PM | 17.3 | 50.9 | 87% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:11 PM | 9.5 | 53.1 | 72% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:37 PM | 7.1 | 53.5 | 67% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:17 PM | 5.7 | 57.2 | 64% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:51 PM | 6.2 | 56.5 | 65% |