Predicted scoreToss-up
Oklahoma
24.7
Florida
28.0
Florida win probability: 58%
Margin (Florida − Oklahoma): 3.3 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:13 PM | -3.4 | 46.1 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:16 PM | -3.3 | 46.2 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:55 PM | -3.4 | 46.2 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:14 AM | -3.3 | 46.2 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:52 PM | -3.4 | 46.2 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:14 PM | -3.4 | 46.3 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:11 PM | -3.0 | 50.0 | 42% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:39 PM | -1.9 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:22 PM | -1.8 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:33 PM | -1.8 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:58 PM | -1.8 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:15 PM | 4.9 | 51.0 | 62% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:39 PM | 2.2 | 52.3 | 55% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:23 PM | 0.1 | 52.0 | 50% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:48 PM | 3.3 | 52.7 | 58% |