2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Colorado @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Colorado
21.5
Arizona State
23.3
Arizona State win probability: 54%
Margin (Arizona State − Colorado): 1.7 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 44.8 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 21 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:10 PM | 6.7 | 50.7 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:17 PM | 6.7 | 50.7 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:50 PM | 6.7 | 50.7 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:07 AM | 6.7 | 50.7 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:50 PM | 6.7 | 50.7 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:19 PM | 6.7 | 50.5 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:07 PM | 4.6 | 48.6 | 62% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:44 PM | 6.9 | 48.5 | 67% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:23 PM | 6.9 | 48.4 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:26 PM | 7.2 | 48.6 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:52 PM | 7.2 | 48.6 | 68% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:12 PM | 7.9 | 40.9 | 70% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:38 PM | 4.6 | 43.2 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:22 PM | 4.2 | 43.6 | 61% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:53 PM | 1.7 | 44.8 | 54% |