2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLean
Vanderbilt
24.6
Mississippi State
30.9
Mississippi State win probability: 65%
Margin (Mississippi State − Vanderbilt): 6.3 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 55.5 (80% range 31 to 80)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:17 PM | -7.6 | 60.2 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:15 PM | -7.6 | 60.2 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:03 PM | -7.5 | 60.2 | 32% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:11 AM | -7.6 | 60.2 | 32% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:57 PM | -7.4 | 60.2 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:30 PM | -8.8 | 61.5 | 30% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:28 PM | -5.7 | 62.7 | 36% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:34 PM | 0.9 | 59.6 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:09 PM | 1.0 | 59.7 | 53% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:32 PM | 0.9 | 59.6 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:08 PM | 0.9 | 59.6 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:05 PM | 4.5 | 56.2 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:32 PM | 5.0 | 56.7 | 62% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:19 PM | 6.3 | 55.9 | 65% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:56 PM | 6.3 | 55.5 | 65% |