2026 Week 10 · Nov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreLean
Vanderbilt
33.9
Mississippi State
26.3
Mississippi State win probability: 32%
Margin (Mississippi State − Vanderbilt): -7.5 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 60.2 (80% range 35 to 86)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 35 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.56% |
| 38 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:17 PM | -7.6 | 60.2 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:15 PM | -7.6 | 60.2 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:03 PM | -7.5 | 60.2 | 32% |