Predicted scoreLean
Maryland
25.5
Purdue
31.5
Purdue win probability: 64%
Margin (Purdue − Maryland): 6.0 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 57.0 (80% range 34 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:20 PM | -1.8 | 53.7 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:18 PM | -1.8 | 53.7 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:13 PM | -1.8 | 53.7 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:28 AM | -1.8 | 53.7 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:46 PM | -1.8 | 53.7 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:28 PM | -1.5 | 53.6 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:17 PM | -1.5 | 52.6 | 46% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:47 PM | -5.7 | 55.5 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:18 PM | -5.8 | 55.6 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:39 PM | -5.5 | 55.3 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:10 PM | -5.5 | 55.3 | 37% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:57 PM | 3.2 | 59.8 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:28 PM | 6.1 | 57.2 | 64% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:27 PM | 6.5 | 57.1 | 65% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:47 PM | 6.0 | 57.0 | 64% |