Predicted scoreLean
Arkansas
22.9
Auburn
29.3
Auburn win probability: 66%
Margin (Auburn − Arkansas): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 52.1 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:11 PM | 3.0 | 54.5 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:17 PM | 3.0 | 54.5 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:59 PM | 3.0 | 54.5 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:20 AM | 3.0 | 54.5 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:53 PM | 3.0 | 54.5 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:13 PM | 3.1 | 54.2 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:06 PM | 0.7 | 52.8 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:33 PM | 1.9 | 52.4 | 55% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:17 PM | 3.3 | 52.6 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:47 PM | 2.2 | 52.5 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:59 PM | 2.2 | 52.5 | 55% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:07 PM | 3.2 | 54.2 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:34 PM | 5.2 | 52.2 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:25 PM | 4.7 | 51.0 | 62% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:51 PM | 6.4 | 52.1 | 66% |