Predicted scoreLean
BYU
22.7
Utah
27.9
Utah win probability: 63%
Margin (Utah − BYU): 5.2 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:24 PM | 7.0 | 52.0 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:21 PM | 7.1 | 52.1 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:06 PM | 7.1 | 52.1 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:17 AM | 7.1 | 52.1 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:51 PM | 7.1 | 52.1 | 68% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:17 PM | 7.1 | 52.2 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:05 PM | 7.9 | 52.3 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:42 PM | 9.1 | 52.6 | 72% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:15 PM | 9.1 | 52.6 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:45 PM | 9.3 | 52.6 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:00 PM | 9.3 | 52.6 | 73% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:00 PM | 9.7 | 50.1 | 74% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:38 PM | 9.5 | 48.7 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:04 PM | 7.9 | 49.3 | 70% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:47 PM | 5.2 | 50.6 | 63% |