Predicted scoreToss-up
Texas
24.1
Missouri
21.7
Missouri win probability: 44%
Margin (Missouri − Texas): -2.3 (80% range -21 to 17)
Total: 45.8 (80% range 24 to 68)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:17 PM | -1.8 | 48.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:15 PM | -1.8 | 48.6 | 46% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:32:04 PM | -1.8 | 48.6 | 46% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:11 AM | -1.8 | 48.6 | 46% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:52 PM | -1.8 | 48.6 | 46% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:16 PM | -1.4 | 48.3 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:14 PM | -4.3 | 47.8 | 39% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:41 PM | 0.1 | 48.7 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:16 PM | 0.1 | 48.7 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:38 PM | 0.3 | 48.7 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:55 PM | 0.2 | 48.7 | 51% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:33:14 PM | -6.0 | 45.2 | 34% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:40 PM | -2.9 | 46.9 | 43% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:01 PM | -0.3 | 45.9 | 49% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:50 PM | -2.3 | 45.8 | 44% |