Predicted scoreLean
Nebraska
31.9
Illinois
25.9
Illinois win probability: 36%
Margin (Illinois − Nebraska): -6.0 (80% range -27 to 14)
Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:14 PM | 4.0 | 52.4 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:13 PM | 4.0 | 52.5 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:48 PM | 4.0 | 52.5 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:49:02 AM | 4.0 | 52.5 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:43 PM | 4.0 | 52.5 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:03:04 PM | 3.9 | 52.6 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:57:03 PM | 1.0 | 56.5 | 53% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:28 PM | -3.0 | 58.5 | 43% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:41:05 PM | -2.9 | 58.5 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:24 PM | -2.7 | 58.4 | 43% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:39:07 PM | -2.7 | 58.4 | 43% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:55 PM | -3.2 | 60.4 | 42% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:26 PM | -4.2 | 58.7 | 40% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:43:10 PM | -5.3 | 58.4 | 37% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:45 PM | -6.0 | 57.7 | 36% |