2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM · Waldo Stadium
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Bowling Green
18.5
Western Michigan
31.7
Western Michigan win probability: 80%
Margin (Western Michigan − Bowling Green): 13.3 (80% range -7 to 34)
Total: 50.2 (80% range 28 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | 24 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:09 PM | 7.6 | 46.9 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:09 PM | 7.6 | 46.9 | 69% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:35 PM | 7.6 | 46.9 | 69% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:43 AM | 7.6 | 46.9 | 69% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:22 PM | 7.6 | 46.9 | 69% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:23 PM | 7.1 | 47.3 | 68% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:37 PM | 7.3 | 47.0 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:19 PM | 11.6 | 46.9 | 78% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:35 PM | 11.7 | 46.9 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:58 AM | 12.0 | 47.0 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:27 PM | 12.0 | 47.0 | 78% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:26 PM | 12.2 | 47.1 | 79% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:13 PM | 10.1 | 48.5 | 75% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:36 PM | 10.9 | 50.1 | 76% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:35 PM | 13.3 | 50.2 | 80% |