Predicted scoreToss-up
Missouri
27.4
Arkansas
23.9
Arkansas win probability: 41%
Margin (Arkansas − Missouri): -3.5 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 29 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:56 PM | 0.6 | 55.1 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:01 PM | 0.6 | 55.1 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:22 PM | 0.6 | 55.1 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:52 AM | 0.5 | 55.1 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:25 PM | 0.7 | 55.1 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:26 PM | 0.3 | 54.6 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:20 PM | -0.2 | 54.5 | 49% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:07 PM | -5.5 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:45 PM | -5.5 | 53.1 | 37% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:15 PM | -4.9 | 53.0 | 38% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:43 PM | -4.9 | 53.0 | 38% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:45 PM | -2.7 | 53.1 | 43% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:11 PM | -6.5 | 54.6 | 34% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:26 PM | -7.4 | 51.6 | 32% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:23 PM | -3.5 | 51.4 | 41% |