2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Arizona State @ BYU
Predicted scoreLikely
Arizona State
18.2
BYU
32.2
BYU win probability: 82%
Margin (BYU − Arizona State): 14.0 (80% range -6 to 34)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:56 PM | 7.1 | 48.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:07 PM | 7.1 | 48.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:27 PM | 7.1 | 48.9 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:54 AM | 7.0 | 48.9 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:36 PM | 7.1 | 48.9 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:46 PM | 6.8 | 49.4 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:31 PM | 6.4 | 50.1 | 66% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:05 PM | 6.0 | 49.9 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:53 PM | 6.0 | 50.0 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:16 PM | 6.3 | 50.0 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:44 PM | 6.3 | 50.0 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:46 PM | 8.1 | 44.9 | 71% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:11 PM | 10.4 | 47.7 | 75% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:55 PM | 12.1 | 46.8 | 79% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:22 PM | 14.0 | 50.4 | 82% |