2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Mississippi State @ Texas
Predicted scoreLikely
Mississippi State
20.7
Texas
32.0
Texas win probability: 76%
Margin (Texas − Mississippi State): 11.3 (80% range -9 to 31)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:06 PM | 12.4 | 53.1 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:00 PM | 12.4 | 53.1 | 78% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:20 PM | 12.4 | 53.1 | 78% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:28 AM | 12.4 | 53.1 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:27 PM | 12.4 | 53.1 | 78% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:57 PM | 12.4 | 53.5 | 78% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:30 PM | 14.2 | 54.5 | 81% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:19 PM | 12.2 | 56.5 | 78% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:35 PM | 12.2 | 56.6 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:57 AM | 12.3 | 56.7 | 78% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:25 PM | 12.4 | 56.7 | 78% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:26 PM | 11.2 | 52.5 | 76% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:14 PM | 12.2 | 52.2 | 78% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:35 PM | 11.7 | 52.1 | 77% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:32 PM | 11.3 | 52.7 | 76% |