Predicted scoreLean
Illinois
30.9
Maryland
25.4
Maryland win probability: 37%
Margin (Maryland − Illinois): -5.5 (80% range -27 to 15)
Total: 56.3 (80% range 33 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.62% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:56:01 PM | -2.9 | 52.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:05 PM | -2.9 | 52.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:12 PM | -2.9 | 52.1 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:18 AM | -2.9 | 52.1 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:38 PM | -2.8 | 52.2 | 43% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:33 PM | -2.9 | 53.1 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:22 PM | -2.0 | 53.0 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:09 PM | 2.1 | 53.2 | 55% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:58 PM | 2.1 | 53.3 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:06 PM | 3.0 | 53.4 | 57% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:34 PM | 3.0 | 53.4 | 57% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:35 PM | -6.5 | 55.2 | 34% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:04 PM | -5.6 | 54.3 | 36% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:45 PM | -3.5 | 54.7 | 41% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:19 PM | -5.5 | 56.3 | 37% |