2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Folsom Field
Kansas State @ Colorado
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
25.3
Colorado
23.1
Colorado win probability: 44%
Margin (Colorado − Kansas State): -2.2 (80% range -21 to 17)
Total: 48.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:57 PM | -2.3 | 50.1 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:07 PM | -2.3 | 50.2 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:17 PM | -2.3 | 50.7 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:36 AM | -2.3 | 50.2 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:28 PM | -2.3 | 50.7 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:47 PM | -1.7 | 51.0 | 46% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:32 PM | 0.1 | 48.9 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:18 PM | -3.6 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:47 PM | -3.6 | 48.4 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:14 PM | -3.3 | 48.4 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:41 PM | -3.3 | 48.4 | 42% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:43 PM | -5.7 | 47.8 | 35% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:09 PM | -4.4 | 48.0 | 39% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:53 PM | -2.6 | 48.2 | 43% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:24 PM | -2.2 | 48.3 | 44% |