2026 Week 9 · Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 AM · Nippert Stadium
Utah @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreLean
Utah
33.3
Cincinnati
25.2
Cincinnati win probability: 31%
Margin (Cincinnati − Utah): -8.2 (80% range -29 to 13)
Total: 58.5 (80% range 34 to 84)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:57 PM | -8.0 | 57.9 | 31% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:06:06 PM | -9.4 | 58.0 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:16 PM | -9.4 | 58.0 | 28% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:45 AM | -9.4 | 58.0 | 28% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:32 PM | -9.5 | 58.0 | 28% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:54 PM | -8.9 | 57.9 | 29% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:34 PM | -6.7 | 57.7 | 34% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:59:18 PM | -9.6 | 55.6 | 28% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:47 PM | -9.6 | 55.6 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 12:00:13 PM | -9.4 | 55.5 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:41 PM | -9.4 | 55.5 | 28% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:42 PM | -9.1 | 55.0 | 29% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:09 PM | -10.9 | 54.7 | 24% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:52 PM | -9.4 | 56.1 | 28% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:25 PM | -8.2 | 58.5 | 31% |