Predicted scoreConfident
Tulane
30.9
Charlotte
14.1
Charlotte win probability: 13%
Margin (Charlotte − Tulane): -16.8 (80% range -36 to 3)
Total: 45.0 (80% range 24 to 67)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 10 | 1.03% |
| 31 | 7 | 0.92% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.92% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.88% |
| 28 | 7 | 0.82% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:56 PM | -15.5 | 47.4 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:59 PM | -15.5 | 47.4 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:31:06 PM | -15.5 | 47.4 | 15% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:25 AM | -15.5 | 47.4 | 15% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:30 PM | -15.5 | 47.4 | 15% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:41 PM | -15.5 | 47.5 | 15% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:47 PM | -14.9 | 44.2 | 16% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:59 PM | -13.1 | 46.0 | 19% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:56 PM | -13.2 | 46.0 | 19% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:52 AM | -12.3 | 46.3 | 21% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:21 PM | -12.3 | 46.3 | 21% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:21 PM | -16.0 | 44.4 | 14% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:47:15 PM | -17.8 | 45.7 | 12% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:30 PM | -17.9 | 45.6 | 12% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:30 PM | -16.8 | 45.0 | 13% |