2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Kansas State @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
23.6
Arizona State
26.4
Arizona State win probability: 57%
Margin (Arizona State − Kansas State): 2.8 (80% range -17 to 22)
Total: 50.1 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:42 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:48 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:39 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |