2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Kansas State @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
27.4
Arizona State
24.1
Arizona State win probability: 42%
Margin (Arizona State − Kansas State): -3.3 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 29 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:42 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:48 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:39 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:53 AM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:01 PM | 2.8 | 50.1 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:42 PM | 2.7 | 50.3 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:56 PM | 2.7 | 50.9 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:42 PM | 0.7 | 46.7 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:17 PM | 0.7 | 46.7 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:46 AM | -0.3 | 46.7 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:08 PM | -0.4 | 46.7 | 49% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:48 PM | -0.9 | 47.1 | 48% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:55 PM | -2.0 | 49.2 | 45% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:57 PM | -1.4 | 49.9 | 47% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:04 PM | -3.3 | 51.5 | 42% |