2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Oklahoma @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Oklahoma
26.7
Mississippi State
24.6
Mississippi State win probability: 45%
Margin (Mississippi State − Oklahoma): -2.1 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.3 (80% range 29 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:48 PM | -5.6 | 50.5 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:53 PM | -5.6 | 50.6 | 36% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:45 PM | -5.7 | 51.0 | 36% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:57 AM | -5.7 | 51.0 | 36% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:01 PM | -5.7 | 51.0 | 36% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:36 PM | -5.7 | 51.2 | 36% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:54 PM | -7.0 | 51.8 | 33% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:32 PM | -3.8 | 53.1 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:06 PM | -3.7 | 53.1 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:33 AM | -3.5 | 53.0 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:59 PM | -3.5 | 53.0 | 41% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:51 PM | 0.2 | 49.2 | 51% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:42 PM | -1.0 | 50.0 | 48% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:12 PM | -1.6 | 49.2 | 46% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:03 PM | -2.1 | 51.3 | 45% |