Predicted scoreLean
Ole Miss
24.7
Texas
29.3
Texas win probability: 61%
Margin (Texas − Ole Miss): 4.6 (80% range -16 to 25)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:53 PM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:43 PM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:56 AM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:17 PM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:38 PM | 0.6 | 54.9 | 51% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:52 PM | 5.8 | 56.3 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:40 PM | 6.1 | 56.2 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:15 PM | 6.1 | 56.2 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:41 AM | 6.1 | 56.3 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:17 PM | 6.2 | 56.3 | 65% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:52 PM | 10.7 | 55.2 | 75% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:48 PM | 9.9 | 55.3 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:09 PM | 7.6 | 54.2 | 68% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:01 PM | 4.6 | 53.9 | 61% |