Predicted scoreToss-up
Ole Miss
26.6
Texas
28.4
Texas win probability: 54%
Margin (Texas − Ole Miss): 1.8 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.58% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:53 PM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:43 PM | 1.8 | 55.0 | 54% |