2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Glass Bowl
Western Michigan @ Toledo
Predicted scoreToss-up
Western Michigan
25.8
Toledo
27.1
Toledo win probability: 53%
Margin (Toledo − Western Michigan): 1.3 (80% range -18 to 21)
Total: 52.9 (80% range 30 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 8.2 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:56 PM | 8.2 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:48 PM | 8.2 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:48:01 AM | 8.2 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:18 PM | 8.3 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:15 PM | 8.3 | 47.2 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:39 PM | 8.5 | 46.6 | 71% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:48 PM | 8.0 | 48.7 | 70% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:07 PM | 8.0 | 48.7 | 70% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:25 AM | 8.3 | 48.8 | 71% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:52 PM | 8.3 | 48.8 | 71% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:04 PM | 9.3 | 52.3 | 72% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:55 PM | 7.7 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:58 PM | 2.5 | 53.3 | 56% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:05 PM | 1.3 | 52.9 | 53% |