2026 Week 8 · Oct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM · Glass Bowl
Western Michigan @ Toledo
Predicted scoreLean
Western Michigan
19.8
Toledo
28.0
Toledo win probability: 70%
Margin (Toledo − Western Michigan): 8.2 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 47.8 (80% range 27 to 71)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:52 PM | 8.2 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:56 PM | 8.2 | 47.8 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:48 PM | 8.2 | 47.8 | 70% |