Predicted scoreToss-up
Baylor
26.9
Kansas
26.5
Kansas win probability: 49%
Margin (Kansas − Baylor): -0.5 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:46 PM | 4.8 | 63.3 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:53 PM | 4.8 | 63.4 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:43 PM | 4.8 | 63.4 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:55 AM | 4.8 | 63.3 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:19 PM | 4.8 | 63.3 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:38 PM | 5.1 | 63.3 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:56:04 PM | 2.9 | 62.2 | 57% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:41 PM | -1.1 | 60.8 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:15 PM | -1.0 | 60.8 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:19 AM | -0.9 | 60.7 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:58 PM | -0.9 | 60.7 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:57 PM | 0.9 | 55.9 | 52% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:44 PM | 0.2 | 56.1 | 50% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:15 PM | 1.1 | 56.5 | 53% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:13 PM | -0.5 | 53.4 | 49% |