2026 Week 8 · Oct 23, 2026, 10:00 PM · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Massachusetts @ UConn
Predicted scoreLikely
Massachusetts
23.3
UConn
32.6
UConn win probability: 72%
Margin (UConn − Massachusetts): 9.2 (80% range -11 to 30)
Total: 55.9 (80% range 31 to 82)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:54 PM | 22.7 | 57.9 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:46 PM | 22.8 | 57.9 | 92% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:26 PM | 22.7 | 57.9 | 92% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:41 AM | 22.7 | 57.9 | 92% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:04:10 PM | 22.9 | 57.9 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:02:00 PM | 22.8 | 58.0 | 92% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:36 PM | 15.2 | 56.6 | 83% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:22 PM | 12.0 | 56.6 | 77% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:40:04 PM | 12.1 | 56.6 | 77% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:36 AM | 12.9 | 56.7 | 79% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:38:13 PM | 12.8 | 56.7 | 79% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:32:15 PM | 5.3 | 56.0 | 63% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:40 PM | 8.3 | 57.7 | 70% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:42:02 PM | 9.6 | 56.6 | 73% |
| 10/18/2026, 2:23:05 PM | 9.2 | 55.9 | 72% |