2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pittsburgh @ Boston College
Predicted scoreLikely
Pittsburgh
28.4
Boston College
18.5
Boston College win probability: 26%
Margin (Boston College − Pittsburgh): -10.0 (80% range -30 to 10)
Total: 46.9 (80% range 26 to 69)
Actual: Pittsburgh 21 – Boston College 27 (margin error 16.0, total error 1.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.85% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.82% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:28 PM | -6.6 | 49.8 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:36 PM | -6.7 | 49.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:04 PM | -6.6 | 50.3 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:58 AM | -6.6 | 50.3 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:49 PM | -6.5 | 50.3 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:06 PM | -5.9 | 50.8 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:06 PM | -12.0 | 52.1 | 22% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:16 PM | -12.6 | 49.9 | 21% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:58 PM | -12.6 | 49.9 | 21% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:14 AM | -11.3 | 49.9 | 23% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:27 PM | -11.3 | 49.9 | 23% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:16 PM | -12.5 | 47.2 | 21% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:33 PM | -11.1 | 48.5 | 23% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:32 PM | -10.0 | 46.9 | 26% |