2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Mississippi State @ LSU
Predicted scoreLean
Mississippi State
21.9
LSU
29.9
LSU win probability: 69%
Margin (LSU − Mississippi State): 8.0 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Mississippi State 0 – LSU 31 (margin error 23.0, total error 20.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:33 PM | 6.7 | 51.5 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:41 PM | 6.7 | 51.5 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:54 PM | 6.7 | 51.5 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:00 AM | 6.7 | 51.5 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:36 PM | 6.8 | 51.5 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:14 PM | 7.0 | 51.3 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:59 PM | 11.3 | 52.3 | 76% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:05 PM | 8.1 | 52.5 | 69% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:56 PM | 8.1 | 52.6 | 69% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:15 AM | 8.0 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:40 PM | 8.0 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:37 PM | 8.1 | 51.9 | 69% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:25 PM | 9.4 | 51.7 | 72% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:53 PM | 8.0 | 51.8 | 69% |