2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Ohio State @ Indiana
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ohio State
26.5
Indiana
28.8
Indiana win probability: 55%
Margin (Indiana − Ohio State): 2.3 (80% range -18 to 23)
Total: 55.2 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Ohio State 19 – Indiana 15 (margin error 6.3, total error 21.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:31 PM | 6.9 | 52.4 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:36 PM | 6.9 | 52.4 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:05 PM | 6.9 | 52.4 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:57 AM | 6.9 | 52.4 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:50 PM | 6.9 | 52.4 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:05 PM | 6.9 | 52.1 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:08 PM | 7.7 | 54.9 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:14 PM | 7.6 | 55.7 | 68% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:57 PM | 7.6 | 55.8 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:15 AM | 7.6 | 55.8 | 68% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:39 PM | 7.6 | 55.8 | 68% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:33 PM | 3.7 | 54.8 | 59% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:27 PM | 1.1 | 56.2 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:26 PM | 2.3 | 55.2 | 55% |