2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Milan Puskar Stadium
Cincinnati @ West Virginia
Predicted scoreToss-up
Cincinnati
31.8
West Virginia
28.1
West Virginia win probability: 41%
Margin (West Virginia − Cincinnati): -3.7 (80% range -25 to 17)
Total: 59.9 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Cincinnati 42 – West Virginia 45 (margin error 6.7, total error 27.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:41 PM | -2.5 | 55.4 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:42 PM | -2.5 | 55.4 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:00 PM | -2.5 | 55.4 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:07 AM | -2.5 | 55.4 | 44% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:46 PM | -2.4 | 55.4 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:24 PM | -3.4 | 55.5 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:17 PM | -6.7 | 56.8 | 34% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:13 PM | -6.4 | 57.5 | 35% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:30 PM | -6.3 | 57.5 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:11 AM | -6.3 | 57.5 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:24 PM | -6.3 | 57.5 | 35% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:19 PM | -5.5 | 60.0 | 37% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:35 PM | -2.7 | 60.6 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:29 PM | -3.7 | 59.9 | 41% |