Predicted scoreLikely
Florida
21.9
Texas
31.9
Texas win probability: 73%
Margin (Texas − Florida): 9.9 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Florida 27 – Texas 24 (margin error 12.9, total error 2.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:38 PM | 10.7 | 49.7 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:38 PM | 10.7 | 49.7 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:57 PM | 10.7 | 49.7 | 75% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:24 AM | 10.7 | 49.7 | 75% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:46 PM | 10.7 | 49.7 | 75% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:12 PM | 10.2 | 49.2 | 74% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:01 PM | 11.0 | 52.5 | 75% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:04 PM | 9.2 | 53.4 | 72% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:31 PM | 9.2 | 53.4 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:10 AM | 9.2 | 53.5 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:24 PM | 9.2 | 53.5 | 72% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:19 PM | 6.9 | 53.1 | 67% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:35 PM | 8.7 | 55.1 | 71% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:29 PM | 9.9 | 53.8 | 73% |