2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Kansas @ Kansas State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas
25.6
Kansas State
28.9
Kansas State win probability: 58%
Margin (Kansas State − Kansas): 3.3 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Kansas 24 – Kansas State 35 (margin error 7.7, total error 4.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.62% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:32 PM | 4.3 | 56.2 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:37 PM | 4.3 | 56.2 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:00 PM | 4.3 | 56.2 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:23 AM | 4.3 | 56.2 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:43 PM | 4.3 | 56.2 | 61% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:16 PM | 3.8 | 55.8 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:19 PM | 3.7 | 56.3 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:09 PM | 10.5 | 54.5 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:44 PM | 10.5 | 54.6 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:07 AM | 10.7 | 54.6 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:33 PM | 10.7 | 54.6 | 75% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:28 PM | 8.9 | 54.0 | 71% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:24 PM | 4.0 | 53.6 | 60% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:24 PM | 3.3 | 54.5 | 58% |