2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Raymond James Stadium
Kent State @ South Florida
Predicted scoreConfident
Kent State
14.1
South Florida
37.5
South Florida win probability: 93%
Margin (South Florida − Kent State): 23.5 (80% range 3 to 45)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Kent State 2 – South Florida 29 (margin error 3.5, total error 20.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 1.00% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.76% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:37 PM | 26.6 | 54.7 | 95% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:34 PM | 26.5 | 54.7 | 95% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:52 PM | 26.6 | 54.6 | 95% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:05 AM | 26.6 | 54.6 | 95% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:52 PM | 26.6 | 54.6 | 95% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:19 PM | 26.0 | 55.1 | 95% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:11 PM | 27.1 | 57.0 | 95% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:14 PM | 29.0 | 58.2 | 96% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:38 PM | 29.1 | 58.2 | 97% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:56 AM | 29.3 | 58.4 | 97% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:37 PM | 29.2 | 58.4 | 97% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:35 PM | 26.7 | 53.0 | 95% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:31 PM | 23.2 | 49.8 | 93% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:36 PM | 23.5 | 51.6 | 93% |