2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · FirstBank Stadium
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreToss-up
Arkansas
25.8
Vanderbilt
28.6
Vanderbilt win probability: 57%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Arkansas): 2.8 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Arkansas 31 – Vanderbilt 21 (margin error 12.8, total error 2.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:40 PM | 9.2 | 63.8 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:41 PM | 9.3 | 63.8 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:57 PM | 9.3 | 63.8 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:59 AM | 9.3 | 63.8 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:45 PM | 9.3 | 63.8 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:22 PM | 9.6 | 63.7 | 72% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:19 PM | 9.5 | 63.6 | 72% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:08 PM | 5.5 | 59.2 | 63% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:47 PM | 5.5 | 59.3 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:05 AM | 5.6 | 59.3 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:34 PM | 5.7 | 59.3 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:15 PM | 4.7 | 55.8 | 62% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:25 PM | 5.2 | 57.1 | 63% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:37 PM | 2.8 | 54.4 | 57% |