Predicted scoreLikely
Utah
30.2
Colorado
16.9
Colorado win probability: 19%
Margin (Colorado − Utah): -13.3 (80% range -33 to 6)
Total: 47.1 (80% range 26 to 69)
Actual: Utah 27 – Colorado 24 (margin error 10.3, total error 3.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.90% |
| 24 | 7 | 0.89% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:30 PM | -10.0 | 53.4 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:37 PM | -9.9 | 53.4 | 26% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:02 PM | -9.9 | 53.4 | 27% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:22 AM | -9.9 | 53.4 | 26% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:48 PM | -9.8 | 53.4 | 27% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:09 PM | -9.0 | 53.2 | 29% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:04 PM | -8.5 | 51.6 | 30% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:02 PM | -10.2 | 50.9 | 26% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:30 PM | -10.2 | 51.0 | 26% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:12 AM | -9.2 | 51.0 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:25 PM | -9.3 | 51.0 | 28% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:18 PM | -15.4 | 45.6 | 15% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:34 PM | -14.1 | 45.5 | 17% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:30 PM | -13.3 | 47.1 | 19% |