2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Malone Stadium
Louisiana Tech @ UL Monroe
Predicted scoreLikely
Louisiana Tech
31.6
UL Monroe
20.2
UL Monroe win probability: 23%
Margin (UL Monroe − Louisiana Tech): -11.4 (80% range -32 to 8)
Total: 51.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Louisiana Tech 24 – UL Monroe 0 (margin error 12.6, total error 27.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.68% |
| 21 | 14 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:40 PM | -6.5 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:40 PM | -6.5 | 49.4 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:08 PM | -6.5 | 49.5 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:33 AM | -6.5 | 49.5 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:52 PM | -6.4 | 49.5 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:17 PM | -6.6 | 49.0 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:22 PM | -10.2 | 50.9 | 26% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:10 PM | -9.2 | 46.2 | 27% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:45 PM | -9.2 | 46.2 | 27% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:06 AM | -8.1 | 46.2 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:45 PM | -8.1 | 46.2 | 30% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:41 PM | -10.1 | 47.0 | 25% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:21 PM | -11.5 | 50.4 | 23% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:39 PM | -11.4 | 51.7 | 23% |