2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Rynearson Stadium
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Toledo
31.5
Eastern Michigan
22.5
Eastern Michigan win probability: 29%
Margin (Eastern Michigan − Toledo): -9.0 (80% range -29 to 11)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Toledo 34 – Eastern Michigan 14 (margin error 11.0, total error 5.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:30 PM | -8.7 | 54.3 | 29% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:39 PM | -8.7 | 54.3 | 29% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:11 PM | -8.7 | 54.3 | 29% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:27 AM | -8.7 | 54.3 | 29% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:54 PM | -8.7 | 54.3 | 29% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:27 PM | -9.2 | 54.2 | 28% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:17 PM | -11.1 | 51.3 | 24% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:01 PM | -14.3 | 48.6 | 18% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:36 PM | -14.3 | 48.6 | 18% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:54 AM | -14.0 | 48.6 | 18% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:34 PM | -14.0 | 48.6 | 18% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:31 PM | -16.8 | 51.5 | 14% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:23 PM | -12.3 | 53.0 | 22% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:46 PM | -9.0 | 53.9 | 29% |