Predicted scoreLean
Rutgers
24.3
Maryland
29.6
Maryland win probability: 63%
Margin (Maryland − Rutgers): 5.3 (80% range -15 to 25)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Rutgers 37 – Maryland 30 (margin error 12.3, total error 13.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:33 PM | 4.0 | 57.5 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:35 PM | 4.1 | 57.5 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:06 PM | 4.1 | 57.5 | 60% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:53 AM | 4.1 | 57.5 | 60% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:42 PM | 4.2 | 57.5 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:04 PM | 4.4 | 57.9 | 61% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:09 PM | 11.7 | 56.6 | 77% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:12 PM | 14.9 | 54.4 | 83% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:38 PM | 14.9 | 54.4 | 83% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:56 AM | 14.9 | 54.5 | 83% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:40 PM | 14.9 | 54.5 | 83% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:32 PM | 2.7 | 55.5 | 56% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:28 PM | 4.4 | 54.1 | 61% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:43 PM | 5.3 | 53.8 | 63% |