2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Yager Stadium
Akron @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreLikely
Akron
22.2
Miami (OH)
31.8
Miami (OH) win probability: 72%
Margin (Miami (OH) − Akron): 9.6 (80% range -11 to 30)
Total: 54.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Akron 14 – Miami (OH) 34 (margin error 10.4, total error 6.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:33 PM | 12.4 | 49.2 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:40 PM | 12.4 | 49.3 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:30:07 PM | 12.4 | 49.2 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:04 AM | 12.4 | 49.2 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:41 PM | 12.5 | 49.3 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:18 PM | 11.7 | 48.5 | 77% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:56 PM | 7.7 | 53.3 | 69% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:58 PM | 6.7 | 53.5 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:41 PM | 6.8 | 53.6 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:59 AM | 7.2 | 53.5 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:32 PM | 7.2 | 53.5 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:34 PM | 11.5 | 51.5 | 77% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:30 PM | 9.9 | 53.7 | 73% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:55 PM | 9.6 | 54.0 | 72% |