2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jones AT&T Stadium
Arizona State @ Texas Tech
Predicted scoreLikely
Arizona State
16.6
Texas Tech
31.6
Texas Tech win probability: 83%
Margin (Texas Tech − Arizona State): 15.0 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 48.2 (80% range 27 to 71)
Actual: Arizona State 25 – Texas Tech 53 (margin error 13.0, total error 29.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.89% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:39 PM | 12.4 | 49.4 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:42 PM | 12.4 | 49.3 | 79% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:59 PM | 12.4 | 49.4 | 79% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:08 AM | 12.5 | 49.4 | 79% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:44 PM | 12.6 | 49.4 | 79% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:01:11 PM | 12.2 | 49.3 | 78% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:55:02 PM | 11.9 | 49.2 | 78% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:58:03 PM | 8.7 | 47.9 | 71% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:37 PM | 8.7 | 48.0 | 71% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:55 AM | 9.3 | 48.0 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:41 PM | 9.3 | 48.0 | 72% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:42 PM | 9.9 | 44.9 | 74% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:26 PM | 13.4 | 46.9 | 81% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:33 PM | 15.0 | 48.2 | 83% |