2026 Week 7 · Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 AM · Ross-Ade Stadium
Washington @ Purdue
Predicted scoreToss-up
Washington
28.4
Purdue
28.1
Purdue win probability: 49%
Margin (Purdue − Washington): -0.3 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 56.6 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Washington 38 – Purdue 26 (margin error 11.7, total error 7.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:36 PM | -10.4 | 53.0 | 25% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:33 PM | -9.0 | 52.8 | 28% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:44 PM | -10.4 | 53.0 | 25% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:20 AM | -10.4 | 53.0 | 25% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:39 PM | -10.5 | 52.9 | 25% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:58 PM | -9.9 | 51.9 | 26% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:54 PM | -11.1 | 50.8 | 24% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:56 PM | -9.2 | 54.3 | 28% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:50 PM | -9.2 | 54.3 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:02 AM | -9.0 | 54.2 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:31 PM | -9.0 | 54.2 | 29% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:26 PM | -4.7 | 56.5 | 38% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:32 PM | -2.6 | 53.8 | 44% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:51 PM | -0.3 | 56.6 | 49% |