Predicted scoreToss-up
Memphis
28.0
Tulane
27.8
Tulane win probability: 50%
Margin (Tulane − Memphis): -0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 55.8 (80% range 32 to 81)
Actual: Memphis 17 – Tulane 31 (margin error 14.2, total error 7.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:39 PM | 5.6 | 56.2 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:32 PM | 5.6 | 56.2 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:43 PM | 5.6 | 56.2 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:47:19 AM | 5.6 | 56.2 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:39 PM | 5.6 | 56.2 | 63% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:58 PM | 5.3 | 56.2 | 63% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:53 PM | 3.5 | 54.1 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:55 PM | 3.4 | 56.2 | 58% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:51 PM | 3.4 | 56.2 | 58% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:59:01 AM | 3.6 | 56.3 | 59% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:30 PM | 3.6 | 56.3 | 59% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:25 PM | 3.4 | 58.9 | 58% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:19 PM | 1.0 | 59.1 | 52% |
| 10/11/2026, 4:41:51 PM | -0.2 | 55.8 | 50% |