Predicted scoreLean
Texas
23.5
Oklahoma
18.0
Oklahoma win probability: 35%
Margin (Oklahoma − Texas): -5.5 (80% range -24 to 14)
Total: 41.5 (80% range 21 to 63)
Actual: Texas 24 – Oklahoma 27 (margin error 8.5, total error 9.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.91% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.85% |
| 17 | 7 | 0.83% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 10 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:22 PM | -1.0 | 47.2 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:29 PM | -1.0 | 47.3 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:35 PM | -1.0 | 46.2 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:27 AM | -1.0 | 46.2 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:30 PM | -1.0 | 46.2 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:47 PM | -2.5 | 46.3 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:40 PM | -1.5 | 44.4 | 46% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:25 PM | -2.0 | 44.8 | 45% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:27 PM | -2.1 | 44.7 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:21 AM | -2.3 | 45.8 | 44% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:19 PM | -2.3 | 45.8 | 44% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:00 PM | -7.0 | 41.1 | 32% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:07 PM | -5.5 | 41.5 | 35% |