2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
South Carolina @ Florida
Predicted scoreLean
South Carolina
27.3
Florida
33.9
Florida win probability: 65%
Margin (Florida − South Carolina): 6.5 (80% range -14 to 28)
Total: 61.2 (80% range 37 to 87)
Actual: South Carolina 38 – Florida 19 (margin error 25.5, total error 4.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:15 PM | 0.6 | 47.3 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:25 PM | 0.7 | 47.3 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:11 PM | 0.7 | 47.3 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:24 AM | 0.7 | 47.4 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:18 PM | 0.7 | 47.4 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:21 PM | 0.8 | 46.1 | 52% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:32 PM | 0.7 | 54.3 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:43 PM | 1.6 | 54.3 | 54% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:07 PM | 1.6 | 54.4 | 54% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:38 AM | 1.8 | 54.3 | 55% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:08 PM | 1.8 | 54.3 | 55% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:09 PM | 10.3 | 60.1 | 74% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:05 PM | 6.5 | 61.2 | 65% |