2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
James Madison @ Georgia Southern
Predicted scoreLikely
James Madison
33.2
Georgia Southern
22.0
Georgia Southern win probability: 24%
Margin (Georgia Southern − James Madison): -11.2 (80% range -32 to 10)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: James Madison 27 – Georgia Southern 24 (margin error 8.2, total error 4.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:16 PM | -15.7 | 55.2 | 16% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:27 PM | -15.6 | 55.2 | 16% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:31 PM | -15.7 | 55.2 | 16% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:37 AM | -15.7 | 55.2 | 16% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:27 PM | -15.7 | 55.2 | 16% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:33 PM | -15.7 | 55.4 | 16% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:18 PM | -13.3 | 55.6 | 20% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:36 PM | -9.2 | 51.1 | 28% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:09 PM | -9.3 | 51.0 | 28% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:30 AM | -8.8 | 51.0 | 29% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:17 PM | -8.8 | 51.0 | 29% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:10 PM | -13.1 | 54.5 | 21% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:13 PM | -11.2 | 55.3 | 24% |