2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Waldo Stadium
Kent State @ Western Michigan
Predicted scoreLikely
Kent State
16.9
Western Michigan
31.8
Western Michigan win probability: 83%
Margin (Western Michigan − Kent State): 14.9 (80% range -4 to 35)
Total: 48.7 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Kent State 7 – Western Michigan 38 (margin error 16.1, total error 3.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:27 PM | 13.5 | 49.7 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:27 PM | 13.5 | 49.8 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:09 PM | 13.5 | 49.8 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:43 AM | 13.5 | 49.8 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:27 PM | 13.5 | 49.8 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:22 PM | 13.5 | 50.2 | 80% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:12 PM | 15.7 | 51.4 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:23 PM | 16.8 | 50.9 | 86% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:14 PM | 16.8 | 51.0 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:34 AM | 17.1 | 51.2 | 86% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:10 PM | 17.1 | 51.2 | 86% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:01 PM | 15.1 | 49.3 | 84% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:52 PM | 14.9 | 48.7 | 83% |