2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Miami (OH) @ Massachusetts
Predicted scoreToss-up
Miami (OH)
29.0
Massachusetts
25.5
Massachusetts win probability: 42%
Margin (Massachusetts − Miami (OH)): -3.4 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 54.5 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Miami (OH) 20 – Massachusetts 19 (margin error 2.4, total error 15.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:19 PM | -18.9 | 52.3 | 11% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:20 PM | -18.9 | 52.3 | 11% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:24 PM | -18.9 | 52.3 | 11% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:12 AM | -18.9 | 52.3 | 11% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:29 PM | -19.0 | 52.3 | 11% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:34 PM | -18.6 | 51.8 | 12% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:19 PM | -5.0 | 53.4 | 38% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:37 PM | -4.5 | 55.0 | 39% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:06 PM | -4.5 | 55.0 | 39% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:29 AM | -4.2 | 55.0 | 40% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:18 PM | -4.1 | 54.9 | 40% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:04 PM | -1.6 | 53.0 | 46% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:06 PM | -3.4 | 54.5 | 42% |