Predicted scoreLean
Indiana
32.1
Nebraska
24.0
Nebraska win probability: 31%
Margin (Nebraska − Indiana): -8.1 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 56.1 (80% range 33 to 81)
Actual: Indiana 20 – Nebraska 17 (margin error 5.1, total error 19.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.53% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:20 PM | -19.8 | 53.5 | 10% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:23 PM | -19.8 | 53.5 | 10% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:21 PM | -19.8 | 53.5 | 11% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:16 AM | -19.8 | 53.5 | 11% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:23 PM | -19.9 | 53.5 | 10% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:41 PM | -19.9 | 53.1 | 10% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:13 PM | -15.9 | 55.5 | 16% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:46 PM | -14.9 | 56.9 | 18% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:11 PM | -14.9 | 56.9 | 18% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:33 AM | -14.8 | 56.8 | 18% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:13 PM | -14.8 | 56.8 | 18% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:05 PM | -7.5 | 56.1 | 33% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:02 PM | -8.1 | 56.1 | 31% |