Predicted scoreConfident
Kansas
17.4
Utah
34.2
Utah win probability: 86%
Margin (Utah − Kansas): 16.7 (80% range -3 to 37)
Total: 51.6 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Kansas 24 – Utah 41 (margin error 0.3, total error 13.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:25 PM | 14.3 | 60.1 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:23 PM | 14.3 | 60.1 | 81% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:17 PM | 14.3 | 60.1 | 81% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:39 AM | 14.3 | 60.1 | 81% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:21 PM | 14.4 | 60.1 | 81% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:28 PM | 14.0 | 59.8 | 80% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:27 PM | 14.3 | 59.6 | 81% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:40 PM | 19.3 | 57.8 | 88% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:16 PM | 19.2 | 57.9 | 88% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:31 AM | 20.1 | 58.0 | 89% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:15 PM | 20.1 | 58.0 | 89% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:54 PM | 19.9 | 52.4 | 90% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:13 PM | 16.7 | 51.6 | 86% |