2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · California Memorial Stadium
Virginia Tech @ California
Predicted scoreToss-up
Virginia Tech
27.2
California
27.0
California win probability: 50%
Margin (California − Virginia Tech): -0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Virginia Tech 20 – California 25 (margin error 5.2, total error 9.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:15 PM | 4.4 | 55.2 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:28 PM | 4.3 | 55.1 | 61% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:19 PM | 4.3 | 55.1 | 61% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:17 AM | 4.3 | 55.1 | 61% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:26 PM | 4.2 | 55.1 | 60% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:31 PM | 4.3 | 54.4 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:13 PM | 1.3 | 55.0 | 53% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:24 PM | -1.2 | 55.1 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:59 PM | -1.2 | 55.1 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:43 AM | -1.1 | 55.1 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:58 PM | -1.1 | 55.0 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:13 PM | -1.1 | 54.6 | 47% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:57 PM | -0.2 | 54.2 | 50% |